Welcome back! The Investment Club kicked off the 2023-2024 school year with an introductory meeting on August 30th. The meeting consisted of a market update. The Club also reviewed the Executive Board and a Club Introduction which was presented by Grace Boghosian ’25 and Elena Duffy ’24.
Financials Analyst Max Oeser ’25 and Devin Heyman ’24 presented the economy’s performance this past summer. The S&P 500 reported 79% positive EPS and 65% stated positive revenues after Q2 2023. Many of the large tech companies helped to begin lifting the economy, especially during the challenges of 2022 and 2023. The US GDP also increased at a rate of 2.1% in Q2 2023, and the unemployment rate is currently 3.8%, sitting at the highest reported level since last February. The economy is still suffering, with the S&P 500 at -5.2%. If this remains, it will mark the largest earnings decline of the S&P since Q3 2020 (-5.7%).
Co-President Spencer Thomas ’24 and TMT Analyst Hank Skatoff ’25 reported that inflation has moved back from a 40-year high last summer, led by the CPI increasing by 3.2% in July 2022. The Fed increased by only 25 basis points, rather than the previous 50 and 70 bp rate hikes. The Fed is still off from its 2% target, but job gains are easing up with the unemployment rate increasing. Both are signs that the rate hikes are doing their job. The annual inflation rate for the United States was 3.2% for the 12 months ending in July, which has significantly declined from the 9% rate in June 2022. The Fed raised rates in May by .25%, June rates remained flat, and July rates were increased by .25% to a 5.5% inflation rate.
Finally, China’s property market is failing. Although it is unlikely, there are many rumored questions regarding a government bailout. Many foreign investors are turning to funds in rival economies. The US has also taken action, with decreased trade tariffs between the United States and China in the works.
This concluded the Meeting Update from Friday, August 30th. We hope to see you at our next meeting and welcome all new members into our organization.