Since its inception in 1985, the NBA Draft Lottery has had a shadowy history. The system was originally implemented to negatively incentivize teams from intentionally losing games in order to secure the highest pick in the draft (more commonly referred to as tanking). After the Houston Rockets and other franchises were accused of the aforementioned in the 1984 Draft, the NBA finally decided it was time for a change. Before the lottery, the draft order was determined by a coin-flip between the 2 worst teams and then reverse order of win-loss record. What the lottery created was a system where all non-playoff teams had an opportunity to move up in the draft and with that, opportunity for the NBA to potentially adjust the order to their preference. In the early years of the lottery (1985-86), every non-playoff team had equal probability of winning and/or moving up or down in the lottery. Over the years, they gradually moved towards the system currently in place, which gives teams with the worst records higher probabilities of moving up. What the “lottery” involves is 3 of the 14 non-playoff teams jumping into the first 3 picks in the draft. Most people don’t understand that picks 4-30 actually all go by reverse order of win-loss record; it only looks different than the standings because some teams leapfrog others. Every year the highly anticipated Draft Lottery is broadcast on TV and currently the process involves the creation of number combinations, which are preassigned for each team based on their win-loss records, and the selection of ping pong balls, which add up to a specific four number combination. The physical selection of the numbers occurs in a back room off-screen and is not broadcasted live. The selection is done in the presence of a number of league officials and some media members, however team representatives are unaware of the results before they are announced during the live TV broadcast. While those involved in the process, the few media members who have witnessed the drawings and the commissioner have vehemently denied any conspiratorial talks, theories abound.
In the very first lottery, where every non-playoff team had equal chance to win, commissioner David Stern famously pulled the New York Knicks envelope out of the selection drum. This essentially awarded one of the league’s most popular and highest profile franchises the crown jewel of a decade of prospects, Patrick Ewing. While it’s hard to determine how exactly the fix was done, theories involve the envelope being bent or frozen prior to the event so Stern could identify it when he went to”randomly select”. Here’s the infamous footage:
If this was the stand-alone event of potential fixing in the league’s history, it might be forgiven and eventually accepted, because it did increase league interest and brought back New York basketball (The Mecca!) for a time, which was a plus. Unfortunately though, there are a number of other questionable incidents where the NBA has shown it has the will and means to achieve a certain result in supposedly random or fair situations when there is clear benefit to the league, making it difficult to ignore or simply assume coincidence. The motives are clearer when you consider David Stern’s tireless emphasis on making the league a “global league”, which would imply the positioning of big stars in large markets as a most effective way to draw interest. Here are some notable incidents/conspiracies:
- Game 6 of the 2002 Western Conference Finals: Remembered as one of the most horribly officiated games in league history (excellently detailed here by Jonathan Abrams of Grantland). The Sacramento Kings were on the verge of beating the Los Angeles Lakers and advancing to the finals, which also meant no 3-peat for Kobe, Shaq and Phil (his 3rd). The Lakers received a ridiculous number of favorable in-game calls and ended up shooting 27 free throws in the fourth quarter. They went on to win this game and the following Game 7 to advance to the finals, where they eventually won the championship. Later, disgraced referee under trial for fixing NBA games for various parties, but mainly gamblers, Tim Donaughy, claimed the game was fixed. Here’s a video that captures some of the mayhem and outrage that was the game and the aftermath.
- More recently, at the end of 2013 NBA season, the Lakers again were captured receiving a serious number of favorable calls and non-calls to help propel them into the playoffs. After a very disappointing season by Lakers standards, they were on the verge of completely missing out on the postseason, which would have been bad for the NBA’s business since they are one of the most popular teams in league with four of leagues most popular stars (Kobe, Steve Nash, Dwight Howard and Pau Gasol), not to mention L.A. is the 2nd largest market in the U.S. Here’s compilation footage of some of the last few games of the season where the Lakers are clearly getting some highly questionable calls to help swing close contests so they could edge out the Utah Jazz for the 8th seed.
- Even more recently, Zach Randolph was suspended for Game 7 of the first round series between Memphis and Oklahoma for allegedly “punching” Thunder center Steven Adams. After reviewing the video, I thought it was pretty weak to even be considered a punch and suspending the team’s top player with the season on the line all but says we want and need Kevin Durant to win this game. The incentive for the NBA to do this is there because Oklahoma City, Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook are a much more interesting team (in terms of national interest) and are two of the leagues most popular stars.
- Selective officiating: This is more a general feeling that many fans have, but with the advent of the “touch-foul” era, referees are given much more leeway and opportunity to fix games. Since fouls are almost entirely subjective, in an extremely physical league where you can probably find contact on any given possession, referees are able to favor certain teams to potentially give one team a greater opportunity to win or simply make the game more competitive and thus, more entertaining for the casual fan.
- 2012 NBA Draft: The New Orleans Hornets get the number one pick and win the Anthony Davis sweepstakes. Although this was a very possible scenario, since the Hornets were pretty bad the year before, there was little doubt amongst most NBA fans that the Hornets were getting this pick. The NBA owned the team! At the time, the NBA had purchased the Hornets and were actively shopping the team to potential buyers. They had all the incentive in the world to make this happen and thus, it happened. It was especially significant they got the number-1 pick because the 2012 Draft was relatively weak, specifically at the top (outside of number 1, of course).
In addition to the Hornets pick, the Cavaliers winning of the Lebron sweepstakes in 2003, the Bulls winning of the Derrick Rose sweepstakes in 2008 and the Cavaliers winning of the Kyrie Irving sweepstakes in 2011 were all questionable cases. In the first case, the NBA rewarded Cleveland with the local star (Lebron is from Akron, Ohio, about two hours from Cleveland), almost as a nod to one of the original NBA Draft rules which allowed teams a territorial pick to select local players before other team’s got their selection (which is actually how the Philadelphia Warriors secured Wilt Chamberlain in the 1959 draft). In the second case, it contained both the local-star aspect (since Derrick Rose is from the south side of Chicago) and greatly helped the league’s business by finally giving Chicago, the 3rd largest market in the U.S. and one of the league’s most popular teams ever, its first real star since Michael Jordan. Finally, in the last case, the Cavaliers were gifted Kyrie after Lebron’s Decision devastated the franchise. Since it appears “The Decision” had been in the works for years, beginning with James, Wade and Bosh all playing together during the 2008 Beijing Summer Olympics, outraged Cavs owner Dan Gilbert may have had a case against the illegality and tampering involved in wooing Lebron from Cleveland. Some believe this Kyrie pick may have been a way for the NBA to somewhat forgive the situation. What is funny is the pick that won the lottery was not even their pick, it was the Clippers (which had the 8th highest probability to win that year). They had traded it away, unprotected, just so the Cavs would take Baron Davis’ salary off their books for the end of that season and the next year. It’s safe to say that was one of the absolute worst trades in NBA history, but Donald Sterling always got what he wanted and he hated Baron and wanted him gone.
This year’s Draft Lottery should be particularly interesting to watch for a number of reasons. To start, this is the first time in NBA history that four of the league’s oldest and most successful franchises, the Lakers, Celtics, 76ers and Knicks have all missed the playoffs. Unfortunately for the Knicks, they traded this year’s pick away in the Carmelo deal, but the other three teams have significant opportunities to win or place in the lottery (Sixers – 2nd, 19.9% chance to win, Celtics – 5th, 10.3%, Lakers – 6th, 6.3%). While the Sixers and the Philadelphia market have not had a major impact on the league in recent years (especially since they traded Allen Iverson to the Nuggets in 2006), the Celtics and Lakers franchises have been drivers of league interest. In a draft where there are four tier-1 level players, conventional wisdom would suggest that the league is going to put one or both of these teams in the top-3. Additionally, with the recent sale of the Milwaukee Bucks franchise to a group of investors, it also follows that there may have been some draft promises made to secure that deal or possibly drive the price. The Bucks had the worst record in the NBA last season and currently have the best odds to win the lottery (25.0%) so it wouldn’t shock anyone if they win or get in the top-3. Finally, this is the first draft for new commissioner, Adam Silver. He’s already proven himself with his outstanding handling of the Donald Sterling situation, however it remains to be seen if he will follow in Stern’s footsteps and engage in the shadier side of league activities, especially with regards to the draft lottery.
Here’s how my all-conspiracy draft shakes out:
- Lakers
- Bucks
- Celtics
The Lakers are the obvious choice to win because they’re one of the league’s most popular franchises and they are at a real crossroads right now. They barely have any assets going forward and very limited cap flexibility, thanks to the obnoxiously expensive Kobe extension. The number one overall pick would immediately give them a young star that they can build around and bring excitement back to the franchise, which effectively brings the most excitement to the league as a whole (relative to the other lottery teams) because they are so heavily followed. It’s been a long time since the Lakers have had odds this good to win the lottery and after this victory, they probably won’t be back anytime soon.
You’re probably thinking, why would the NBA give the Bucks this pick after all that talk about making the league more popular, giving big markets star players, etc.? The NBA does this because they just convinced an investment group to give $500 million for a Milwaukee franchise and it helps their credibility after their shameless gift to the Lakers. They are also probably hoping the Bucks take Embiid in this scenario (makes sense for them and he has ties to the organization) since he’s destined to be a good player, but he’s not as high of a profile guy like Wiggins or Parker.
Lastly, it wouldn’t be right if the NBA didn’t get the C’s in on this fix. They are one of the most important teams in the league and the NBA benefits when they are good. Since the break up of the original Big Three (KG, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen), this franchise has been kind of lost between thinking they can truly compete for a title and sort-of rebuilding. This pick would allow them to immediately secure a foundation and likely keep them competitive for the next decade. It also does not matter as much to them if they end up picking third because their roster is actually not bad at any single position; they would be happy with any of the top-3 or 4 guys. With high-profile college coach Brad Stevens on the bench and some decent young talent, the franchise should be able to turn its fortunes around in a year or two.
Finally, it works out for the Sixers too because they default to the 4th pick in the draft and still get a young star in whichever of the four tier-1 level prospects does not get taken, although I doubt they get Wiggins. Basketball will be back in LA, Boston and Philly next year (hopefully).