It’s been a while since my last post (other than my updated, post-lottery mock drafts), so just to catch up on a couple things related to the Draft Lottery results:
- I hate that the Cavs won the Draft Lottery because 1) they don’t deserve it after winning twice in the past three years, 2) they’ve squandered their high non-Kyrie (which was a no-brainer) picks on the likes of Tristan Thompson (4th overall – replacement level forward), Dion Waiters (4th overall – potentially good but has conflicting personality with Kyrie) and Anthony Bennett (No. 1 overall – possible bust), and 3) the toxic environment created by outspoken, contentious owner, Dan Gilbert, has not only trickled down to affect team performance, but has hindered player development, which is all but stripping the NBA of young, top-10 talent every year another top prospect is shipped off to Lake Erie. Losing another star/super-star caliber player to the black hole that is the Cleveland Cavaliers generally just sucks for the NBA collective, and it is especially pointless if the Cavs are unable to retain any of these guys long term (i.e. Lebron, Kyrie?); we’re wasting the valuable primes of these players’ careers from both a performance and marketability standpoint, regardless of whether they leave or not.
- That being said, the city has suffered enormously since it’s “golden years” in the early-mid 20th century, ultimately culminating in The Decision. Winning the NBA Draft Lottery three times in four years seems like almost more than fair compensation (at least for Cleveland basketball) for Lebron’s departure, especially when they had the 9th best odds to win this past year. If the Cavaliers could prove they are capable of properly developing young talent, retaining coveted free agents and maintain a winning and professional club atmosphere, I would have no problem with the NBA helping out the old Rust Belt city. Unfortunately, it appears that every time they make moves or draft players, they do more harm than good for both their team and the entire league, which ultimately hurts the overall quality of play/interest in the NBA. If something does not change, the league needs to seriously consider relocating the franchise to a more capable and deserving city (Seattle, anyone?).
- Finally, this “victory” of sorts and the selection by the Browns of Johnny Football in the NFL Draft may be just what the city needs to revitalize its sports franchises. There are a number of scenarios, which hinge upon who they draft (which I will detail below), the success of the Browns and outcome of the current and next year’s NBA postseason that could really change the fortune of this unlucky city.
The Cavaliers have about four logical directions they can go with this pick – draft Embiid, Parker or Wiggins, or trade it. For me, Exum is a non-factor here because they already have a crowded backcourt of ball-dominant guards that don’t exactly get along and adding another would be silly. Also, surprising everyone yet again and taking an undervalued (relative to the top prospects) power forward (i.e. Noah Vonleh, Julius Randle or Aaron Gordon) seems extremely unlikely and would be monumentally stupid after last year’s screw up with Anthony Bennett.
A trade for a borderline All-Star would be an interesting scenario for the Cavs, but ultimately, I don’t think there would be any matches when you consider all the necessary factors needed to make a blockbuster-level deal. While adding a budding star like Kevin Love, LaMarcus Aldridge or Al Horford would be ideal since they’re proven All Stars and the Cavs are borderline desperate to get back into the playoffs, the assets they would need to sacrifice in order to acquire one of these guys are too much. Giving away a potential All Star on a rookie contract (whoever they take at No. 1) and pieces (maybe Dion Waiters?) is a very high price to pay for a player who would likely not guarantee to resign in 1, 2, or 3 years. Other teams would also not be willing to offer a lower price for one of their best and most proven players just to better fit Cleveland’s troubles retaining players. Ultimately, the high value teams place on their own guys, plus the uncertainty and potential for a home run the Cavs could have with the number one pick make it appear a trade partner would be unlikely.
The argument for taking Jabari Parker number one is that the Cavs, despite all of their failures, have been trying to construct a team to win now. Jabari is the most NBA ready prospect of the three and would fill the huge whole at small forward. He gives them instant offense and a team/winning attitude, which, even though he lost in the first round of the NCAA Tournament at Duke, he at least proved through his comments and attitude during the regular collegiate season. While he might not have the highest upside of any of the three prospects, he has the highest floor. Just based on his skill set, size and maturity at his young age (19), it looks like he will most definitely not be a bust. However, by drafting Parker, the Cavs are still left with a fairly significant long-term hole at the 5, as well as a relatively crowded front court (since Parker looks like he will be able to play the 4 a la a Carmelo Anthony or Paul Pierce) and limited upside compared to other options. Also, it does not leave a spot for a potential return of the King to Cleveland since Lebron and Jabari are similar players, at least positionally.
The argument for taking Wiggins is that he is the perfect mix of both NBA readiness now and future upside. His superior abilities in skills that are difficult, if not impossible to coach (like athleticism, size, defense) set him apart from other players, especially those on the wing. He has a chance to be a T-Mac/Paul George-level player who could play both shooting guard and small forward. At the least, he will likely be an All-NBA Defense level defender, which is always valuable to an NBA team and especially important to the Cavs who were among the worst in the league at defending the small forward position last year. However, like Exum, his presence would likely create minor overcrowding in the backcourt. Also, like Jabari, his presence would somewhat fill the whole at the 3, which limits roster space for a potential Lebron return. Even though he might be the best fit for the Cavs current strategy of trying to compete now while rebuilding, it’s not the best fit positionally or long-term.
The most logical fit for the Cavs is Joel Embiid for a number reasons – 1) he has the highest ceiling, 2) he plays a position of scarcity (Center), which holds historically and currently, and is especially true with regards to the 2014 draft, and 3) he fits a team need.
Embiid has the type of potential to be an all-time great center. He has been compared to two-time NBA Champion Hakeem Olajuwon and could be the anchor of a playoff team for the next 15 years (although likely not immediately). Players like him do not come along very often. If he is healthy, he is the player worthy of the number one overall pick. However, this all hinges upon his back checking out okay, which is anything but a sure thing since back injuries are usually tricky and can be very career damaging. All signs point to his back being healed and not problematic, but that is for the team doctors to evaluate.
Assuming his back checks out, this should be the Cavs pick because not only does he fulfill the aforementioned reasons, but he allows the team to leave the wing position open and helps add to a more complete and appealing roster for a potential Lebron return. This may be just a fool’s hope, but betting on the Heat to lose the Finals both this year and next, Wade’s body continuing to deteriorate, Lebron’s remorse when he is once again unable to win in his present situation and Johnny Football (close friend and business partner of Lebron) bringing back Cleveland sports might be smart, especially when you aren’t sacrificing any talent or potential with the selection of Embiid.
The primary arguments against this are that Cleveland has been a toxic situation for the past several years and until that changes, no free agent is going to want to play there when they have the option to make the same money somewhere else. Also, it seems extremely unlikely that a player would leave a team, especially one that has been so good to him and his career after winning two+ championships – meaning Lebron and the Heat definitely need to lose in the Finals at least once, but probably twice (assuming he opts in to his contract this summer, which seems likely). Also, a host of other Miami-team related issues likely need to occur for him to consider leaving, such as Wade’s body deteriorating to the point where he’s bordering retirement, Bosh not performing at a high enough level worthy of a No. 2 option on a team and possibly other team/management issues with coaching and roster construction. However, all of the above is possible when teams lose, which is why Cleveland might be smart to pick this way. If they get Embiid and convince Lebron, they are championship favorites. If they take Parker, Wiggins or trade the pick for a regular All-Star, they are likely a good team in the East that may contend for a Championship or Conference Finals, but is probably still perpetually going to be pieces away. Lebron is only one guy; betting on convincing him might be a whole lot easier than working extra hard and being extremely lucky just to get to a level close to his.
Based on most NBA Draft reporters, it appears that Embiid is the favorite to go No. 1, however with Cleveland’s history of Draft Day misdirection, it will be truly impossible to know for sure till the first pick is in on June 26th at 7:35 pm EST.