FINALLY tankapalooza is over, which is fantastic because 1) we don’t have to watch any more of these pathetic lame duck games and 2) we can finally start posting some more relevant stuff about the draft. Right now, we have a pretty clear understanding of what the draft order’s going to look like, however the Draft Lottery still needs to take place in May. That will determine the teams and order of the Top-3, however since the worst three teams have the best odds, my mock draft will simply go by worst record. There are still a few players that have yet to announce their decisions of whether to enter the draft or stay in school. For the purposes of this, I simply used all players who have entered the draft or not announced they are returning to school.
1. Milwaukee Bucks: Joel Embiid, C, Kansas
I think Embiid makes a ton of sense for the Bucks should they retain their top spot after the Draft Lottery and here’s why:
- He actually might be the best player in the draft, which is always important to note when a team is picking first. Fortunately for the Bucks, this year’s draft has 3 possible guys who can make that case, which simultaneously makes it easier and harder for them to choose (harder decision but overall less risk). There should be no reason why any team this year is forced to pull a Cleveland and pick a guy nobody believed deserved to go number 1 (Anthony Bennett) because of a perceived lack of a clear choice.
- He already has ties to the Bucks through his friend, mentor and fellow Cameroonian countryman, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, who spent 5 seasons with the Bucks before being traded to the Kings last off-season and then to the T-Wolves last November. This should be a huge green flag for a small-market organization that has historically struggled to keep star talent from leaving for greener pastures (i.e. Lew Alcinder aka Kareem Abdul Jabbar).
- Jumping off the Kareem thought, this is a franchise that has been looking for a replacement franchise center since he bailed on the organization in the early 70s. Embiid, while not a Greg Oden level prospect, looks like he can be a force on both offense and defense in the pros. Considering the fact that he has only been playing basketball for a limited number of years, his potential for growth is huge. He has great athleticism and passes the “eye test”. On the court, he looks like a well-rounded athlete and runs swiftly and naturally (something that cannot be said about many big men). Lastly, at his one and only year at Kansas, he displayed just how valuable he was to that team when he was on the court. When he went down with injury and was unable to return before Kansas’ early second round departure in the tournament, the team struggled significantly, despite other top prospect, Andrew Wiggins, continuing to play good but not great.
- The Bucks lineup is void of a true center right now and should they pick Embiid, a true or at least close to 7-footer, they would likely have the tallest and lankiest team in the league – imagine a lineup of Giannis Antetokounmpo (SG – 6’10” and growing), John Henson (F – 6’11”), Larry Sanders (F – 6’11”), Brandon Knight (PG – 6’3″) and Embiid (C – 7’0″), with Ekpe Udoh (6’10”) coming off the bench. That is a total match-up nightmare for any team with undersized players at any position, with exception of maybe point guard. Embiid is the only true center in the lottery and possibly the first round, which could be a big opportunity for the Bucks to gain an edge on other teams by having a future NBA star at a league-wide weak position.
With the team recently sold to a couple of hedge fund managers, it is unclear what direction the organization is going to take and what type of management they are likely to employ. If they opt for a total roster overhaul, it’s a total toss-up of who they would pick. That being said, I think most organizations would strongly consider Embiid at #1 and he fulfills a position the Bucks need. Wiggins might seem redundant with Giannis, another super-tall, athletic shooting guard already there. Jabari would probably be a decent fit, but I’m not sure he fits into their scheme as well. The Bucks would probably be happy with any one of those three players, seeing as their biggest team need is mainly just talent.
2. Philadelphia 76ers: Andrew Wiggins, SG/SF, Kansas
If the Sixers end up with a top-3 pick, I think they would take Wiggins, Embiid (assuming his back checks out) and Parker, in that order. Wiggins seems to be both the smartest pick for them and the best fit considering the way they have positioned themselves going forward. Wiggins has the most potential of any player in the draft and at 6-8, he is a very long, lanky SG. Combined with 6-6 PG Michael Carter-Williams, that would be one of the longest and most athletic back courts in the NBA. I think they would be happy with Parker or Embiid, but Wiggins is a player that could be even better down the road and this franchise, after completely throwing away this season, appears willing to wait.
3. Orlando Magic: Dante Exum, G, Australia
I originally believed the Magic would take Jabari in this spot, regardless of their obvious need at guard, however after further examination of their roster, Exum’s rising draft stock and reports about the Magic organization interest in taking a guard, I’ve changed my mock pick to the Australian. The Magic already have a plethora of young small/power forward-type players in Tobias Harris, Moe Harkless and Andrew Nicholson and clear hole at guard, with only Victor Oladipo a part of their long-term plans. Although I feel Jabari is a talent that you do not pass on for a inferior player, despite positional need, I think the Magic feel Exum’s upside and potential back court fit next to Oladipo outweigh this. If Wiggins is still on the board, I believe they would go with home over Exum since he can also play guard.
4. Utah Jazz: Jabari Parker, F, Duke
This is the Jazz’s dream scenario and prospect. Not only is he the best prospect available, fits a positional need of small/power forward and is the type of ready-to-contribute player that fits in with their more developed core, but he is Mormon! Parker might be one of the Jazz’s best opportunities (in franchise history) to acquire a franchise star and keep him long-term. Most recently (5 years ago) the Jazz were forced to trade Deron Williams before the end of his contract in fear (which was warranted) that he would bolt for a much large market. People aren’t exactly lining up to play in Utah (unless their receiving a premium check), however the Mormon Parker might feel right at home, which is a huge value added to taking him. From both reports and common sense it appears Jabari is the highest player on their draft board and if they can get him at 4 it would be a massive success.
5. Boston Celtics: Marcus Smart, PG, Oklahoma State
Now that we are outside of the first tier of talent, this is where the draft really gets interesting and starts getting much harder to project. This pick is especially tough since Boston does not have a clear need at any position, but is likely in need of an upgrade everywhere. They would love to jump into the lottery to get one of those Tier 1 level guys, however if they end up staying here I think they will ultimately opt for a point guard of the future rather than another forward like Julius Randle or Aaron Gordon. Although they have Rajon Rondo signed for another year, his frustration with the franchise’s rebuilding process and uncertain free agency next summer make him a big question mark going forward. By selecting Smart, they acquire someone with a very strong, vocal interest in winning and a point guard to build their team around. Additionally, with Jared Sullinger (PF-C), Kelly Olynyk (PF-C) already on the roster, the selection of Randle or Gordon (to a smaller extent since he can switch to small forward) might be redundant. Overall, the Celtics greatest need is talent, however since it isn’t obvious which of Randle, Gordon, Smart or even Noah Vonleh are more talented, it’s tough to say where they will go with this pick. Ultimately, I think it will be Smart because he fits a more important team need and brings a mentality of winning, something a franchise that has won 17 championships highly values.
(Photo credit to basketsession.com for the cover photo and ESPN and the NBA for the logos.)