Research | Amy Y. Guisinger

Publications

Guisinger, A. Y., McCracken, M. W., & Owyang, M. T. (2024). Revisiting the Fed’s Forecasting Advantage. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking. http://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.13155

- Working Paper Version: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper 2022-001

Guisinger, A. Y., Jackson, L. E., & Owyang, M. T. (2023). Age and Gender Differentials in Unemployment and Hysteresis. Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics. https://doi.org/10.1515/snde-2022-0068

Working Paper Version: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper 2022-015A

Guisinger, A. Y., Owyang, M. T., & Soques, D. (2021). Industrial Connectedness and Business Cycle Comovements. Econometrics and Statistics.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2452306221000988

Working Paper: St. Louis Fed Working Paper 2020-052B
Press coverage: Morning Consult Finance

Guisinger, A. Y. & Smith, J. K. (2021). News vs. Noise: What Information is Contained in the Revisions of the JOLTS Data?, Econmodels.com

Guisinger, A. Y. (2020). Gender Differences in the Volatility of Work Hours and Labor Demand. Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol. 66. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0164070420301798

Guisinger, A. Y., Owyang, M. T., & Shell, H. G. (2019). Economic Forecasting: Comparing the Fed with the Private Sector. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Regional Economist, Third Quarter 2019. https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/third-quarter-2019/economic-forecasting-comparing-fed-private-sector

On the Economy Blog: https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2019/october/comparing-fed-forecasts-private-sector
Press coverage: Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg

Guisinger, A. Y., Owyang, M. T., & Shell, H. G. (2018). Comparing measures of potential output. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, Fourth Quarter 2018, pp. 297-316. https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/2018/08/13/comparing-measures-of-potential-output

Essay brief: “Measuring Potential Output,” Economic Synopses, No. 25, 2018. https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/economic-synopses/2018/09/28/measuring-potential-output
Press coverage: Wall Street Journal

Gallemore, C., Guisinger, A. Y., Kruuse, M., Ruysschaert, D., & Jespersen, K. (2018). Escaping the “Teenage” Years: The Politics of Rigor and the Evolution of Private Environmental Standards. Ecological Economics, 152, 76-87. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921800917313873

Guisinger, A. Y., Hernandez-Murillo, R., Owyang, M. T., & Sinclair, T. M. (2018). A state-level analysis of Okun’s law. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 68, 239-248. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0166046217300327

Working Paper Versions: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Work Paper 2015-029A, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Working Paper No. 1523 and Institute for International Economic Policy Working Paper 2015-17
Press coverage: Lafayette College

Guisinger, A. Y., & Sinclair, T. M. (2014). Okun’s Law in real time. International Journal of Forecasting. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207014000351

Working Paper Version: Institute for International Economic Policy Working Paper 2014-5

Work in Progress

“How Important is Knowledge of the Fed’s Conditioning Path?” joint with Michael W. McCracken and Michael T. Owyang (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)
“Inequality and the Central Bank,” joint with Christopher S. Ruebeck (Lafayette College) and Julie K. Smith (Lafayette College)
“Gender and Economic Growth,” joint with Kristina Sargent (Middlebury College)
“Beyond the Textbook: Incorporating Current Events in a Student-Driven Framework”