The Good, the Bad and the Ugly: Weekend 1 of the NCAA Tournament

This past weekend we saw some awesome upsets, spectacular games and disappointing performances.  In this post, I’ll break down some individual successes and failures that we witnessed during the first two rounds of a so-far fantastic 2014 NCAA Tournament.

 

The Good:

Kentucky’s Freshman:

In what had been a relatively under-whelming season thus far for Kentucky and their top-rated freshman class, the first two rounds of the tournament provided a wildly successful showcase of their abilities and potential. The maturity and poise they showed in the second round upset of previously undefeated Wichita State will likely significantly increase their draft stock. This is especially true with regards to the twin guard brothers of Andrew and Aaron Harrison, who have continually expressed their intention of going pro all season, even though draft projections were unfavorable. They should now be in a much better position to declare.  Standout power forward, Julius Randle also helped his draft stock by dominated the glass during the two games, which helped reaffirm to scouts and executives his projection as a top-6 consensus pick. Lastly, sweet shooting guard/forward, James Young, also displayed his excellent shooting ability and clutch factor by knocking down big free throws down the stretch. Every year players boost up their draft stock by playing well in the tournament because it is a huge national audience and they are the most important games of the year.  A month ago, it felt like this year’s Kentucky team was more or less a failure, at least compared to other years and destined for an early round exit. Now, they have a Sweet Sixteen berth and could have as many as 5 guys go in the first round, if you include sophomore Wiley Cauley-Stein, who has played like a beast the past couple weeks. I expect them all to declare for the draft this year, especially with these recent tournament successes.

 

The Bad:

Joel Embiid:

Number 2-seeded Kansas was unable to advance past the 2nd round after being upset by 10-seed Stanford, which meant star freshman center, Joel Embiid, likely played his last game in a Kansas uniform weeks ago.  He had been out with a back injury and was expected to return, should Kansas advance to the Sweet Sixteen. This not only derailed Kansas’ season, but may hurt his draft stock because he was unable to showcase his abilities in front college basketball’s largest audience.  It also leaves further question marks about the extent of his back injury, which may scare some teams away and cause him to slide on draft night.

 

Tyler Ennis and Marcus Smart:

Both of the drafts top point guard prospects lost over the first weekend, with Marcus Smart‘s Oklahoma State team going down in the first round to Gonzaga and Tyler Ennis‘ Syracuse team getting upset by Dayton in round 2.  While Smart had a pretty fantastic overall stat line, finishing with 23 points, 13 rebounds, 7 assists and 6 steals; his team failed to advance past the first round. His reasoning behind returning to school after his freshman year was to win or at least advance far in the NCAA tournament, while also working on his faults (specifically his shooting ability). This first round loss put the final nail on an unexpectedly underwhelming season. Smart will likely slide from his very high ranked position in last year’s (weak) draft, however I still expect him to get picked at least in the top-8 (most likely top-6).

While Tyler Ennis also played decently well in both of the weekend’s games, the Syracuse offense he commanded was pretty stagnant most of the game versus Dayton. Even though the team’s total and complete failure to make a 3-pointer was not entirely his fault, the team’s inability to get anything going most of the game was. Towards the end he was almost able to put the team on his back through his brilliant ability to get in the lane, make lay-ups and get fouled, however his immature decision making down the stretch made it difficult for the team to overcome Dayton’s strong play. This was especially true on the final two possessions where, after showing the ability to get in the lane at will during the previous 5 minutes, he opted for a long 2-pointer (which missed) and a 3-pointer at the buzzer, which also missed. During both shots the team was down by 2 points and could have tied it with a simple lay-up or 2 free throws. Ennis has since announced he will declare for the draft, which, after starting the season 25-0, feels like he is leaving a lot of future collegiate achievement on the table. The 180 pounder is likely a top-10 to top-15 pick, depending on draft order, and will need to bulk up if he plans to succeed in the much more physical and fast-paced, NBA.

 

The Ugly:

Jabari Parker:

So, Duke lost in the first round to 14-seeded Mercer and Jabari got benched at the end of the game for being too much a defensive liability. That clearly wasn’t the showcase nor the collegiate success that he wanted to help reinforce his decision of whether or not to enter the draft. While most scouts will not be swayed by this performance in the grand scheme of the draft (he is still probably a lock for the top-3), it may deter him from actually declaring for the draft this year. After watching him all year, it has been clear that Jabari is already a pro; he could average 20 points per game in the NBA right now. However, he has continually expressed real desire to succeed at the collegiate level, which could result in him returning to school next year. In his post-game interview he expressed feelings of having unfinished business at Duke and hinted at returning for a sophomore season and the opportunity to play with fellow Chicagoan and number 1 rated high school prospect, Jahlil Okafor, who has already committed to Duke for next year. Even with these factors, I still expect Jabari to declare for this year’s draft. He is the most NBA-ready player and probably needs another year of college the least of any of the draft’s top prospects. It would not only be difficult for him to pass up the money, but also the immediate challenge and success he’s likely to have in the NBA next year.  It should also be noted fellow Duke freshman shooting guard, Rodney Hood, had an equally poor performance scoring 6 points on 2-10 shooting and fouling out. He’s also expected to declare for this year’s draft and is projected to be picked somewhere in the first round.

Andrew Wiggins:

Looks like Andrew Wiggins last game as a collegiate player was almost equally as disappointing as Jabari’s. Wiggins was pretty much shut down by Stanford the entire game, only scoring 4 points on 6 shots. His critics will point to this performance as an indicator of how most of the season has gone, where Wiggins played seemingly too passive at key moments. In this case, I think Stanford deserves more credit for having a great game plan and executing it. Wiggins is definitely still a top-3 pick, however, whether he goes number 1 overall remains uncertain. Since all 3 of the consensus top-3 prospects in the draft had little to no impact performances in the tournament, it is incredibly hard to gauge the order in which teams value them right now. Wiggins is fully expected to declare for the draft and he will have to prove himself during workouts and interviews to convince teams he is worth the top pick and that his unmatched potential is real.