Reaction to Chad Ford’s Mock Draft 3.0

Chad Ford is ESPN’s primary NBA draft insider. He scouts players, talks with teams and follows all general league happenings to provide up to date information on when and by whom players will be selected by in the draft. He is one of the most reliable draft insiders out there and usually has a good understanding of where teams and players stand leading up to and during draft night.  He regularly updates a “Big Board”, which is his best guess of what a consensus ranking of the best NBA prospects is. This “board” is not his personal rankings, it is a pool of all the information he gathers from teams, insiders and player scouting. In addition to this, he frequently releases a Mock Draft, which gets updated as the draft gets closer and more information about where exactly teams are picking and who exactly has declared are available. On March 5th, he released his 3rd edition.  With 20-25 games yet to be played for most teams and March Madness and the Draft Lottery in May yet to occur, this is by no means a very serious prediction. However, it does give a good estimate of where prospects stand right now, what teams are looking for based on their currently play and roster structure, and a relatively likely order based on record. Here is a link to Mock Draft 3.0, however if you don’t subscribe to ESPN Insider, most of the content is unavailable.

Here’s what it looks like:

Reactions:

• One thing that immediately jumps out is the number of freshman being selected in the Draft Lottery or first 14 picks (the non-playoff teams). Ford has 8 freshman being picked not only in the lottery, but in the top 10. That is an impressive feat and a true testament to the talent of this year’s draft class. However, not all freshman will necessarily declare. For example, even with a near guarantee of a top 5 pick, Jabari Parker said on March 7th that he was still undecided about whether to enter this year’s draft.
• Another thing that stood out was the Magic’s mock selection of Dante Exum over Marcus Smart. The Magic had been enamored with Smart since last season, before he decided to return to school. However it looks like that interest is beginning to sour with Smart’s lack of overall improvement from last year, especially with regards to his outside shooting. Should he lead Oklahoma State to the Tournament and play well in it, his stock should improve and his consideration by the Magic likely will too.
• It seems that there is a big difference between picking in the top-6 and picking 7 or below. I feel like the prospects (assuming they all declare) in this upper tier would likely go number 1 or 2 overall, in a normal year. However, since this year is so loaded at the top, a team can get a potentially franchise changing player even at 5 or 6 overall, hence all the blatant tanking strategies currently going on in the NBA. Additionally, the Sixers are in a unique position because their ownership of the Pelicans draft pick (currently at 10) is top-5 protected, meaning they are the only team with the potential to get two franchise changing players at the top of the draft.
• I really like the Bucks selection of Joel Embiid first overall. This makes sense for them for several reasons: 

1. He might be the best player in this draft class when it’s all said and done. He has one of the highest ceilings and also a pretty stable floor.  Hakeem Olajuwon comparisons have been thrown around.
2. The Bucks already have a young SG/SF stud in the “Greek Freak”, Giannis Antetokounmpo. The super young, ultra-athletic, fan favorite is built like Kevin Durant and although he’s raw, he has great basketball instincts. Picking a player like Jabari Parker or Andre Wiggins when there is a center of equal value on the board could be redundant and stunt Giannis’ growth.
3. The Bucks have been looking for a franchise center ever since one by the name of Lew Alcinder (Kareem Abdul-Jabbar) demanded a trade to a major market in 1974, even after winning the franchise’s only NBA Championship in 1971. The Cameroon-born Embiid would likely be much a much easier convince to stay in small-market Milwaukee, especially since he already has ties to the team from his fellow countryman, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute. And look, he’s already wearing Bucks apparel.

• The Sixers desperately need to get a pick in the top-4 (maybe even top-3). Since they drafted PG Michael Carter-Williams last year, the selection of either Dante Exum or Marcus Smart would be pretty redundant. Embiid, Wiggins or Parker would all be great fits, however, they’re the three best players in the draft. Personally, I think they would be best off taking Wiggins because he has the highest ceiling offensively, even though he’s currently not the best, and he plays hard on defense. The Sixers have the worst defense in the league by far and Jabari hasn’t shown a particularly strong interest on that side of the ball. I also like Wiggins over Embiid because I think he has more potential to be a star and that is something Philly has desperately been craving.
• It’s interesting to note that 3 of the NBA’s greatest franchises: Philadelphia, Boston and Los Angeles, might all be picking in the top-5.  In the potentially best draft of the past ten years, the rich just keep getting richer.
• With Conference Tournaments, March Madness, the remainder of the NBA regular season and NBA draft lottery still left, this mock draft may not be even close to what we see happen on June 26th. But it’s still nice to see where things stand before the final push.