1.
Since my case study country is Portugal, I would think it is safe to say that the country that it follows the lead of would definitely be Spain. While this is based off of first thought, there really is a lot of information that backs up this notion. From a geographical standpoint, they are next-door neighbors and in terms of land Portugal completely borders Spain; in fact, the only country Portugal truly borders is Spain. Historically speaking, when the Christopher Columbus and the Spanish went to the New World they were the first to do. Under Prince Henry the Navigator, the Portuguese invested heavily in the endeavor of exploring the world because the clear trade advantages they saw in it. The Portuguese followed the lead set by Columbus and the Spanish by sending out explorers of their own, such as but not limited to, Vasco de Gama, Ferdinand Magellan, and Bartolomeu Dias.
In terms of foreign policy, the answer to what country Portugal follows the lead of is a bit more murky. As stated earlier, the easy answer based upon shared history and geographic location the easy answer to pick would be that Portugal follows Spain. However, in terms of clout with the European Union, Spain certainly punches below its weight in participation. However, despite this fact, the equally view each other as important partners to one another. Portugal has always been a fanatical supporter of the European Union and has tried to participate in it as much as it can. In terms of commitment towards the European Union, according to ECFR surveys Portugal is extremely similar to France in terms of commitment to the EU. Additionally, Portugal has a close bond with the United Kingdom because of their mutual interest in being apart NATO. Because of this Germany has wanted to use Portugal as a country to try to get the United Kingdom to not exit the European Union. All in all, its logical to make connections to both the United Kingdom, Germany, and France but it is quite clear due to the fact that Portugal is on the periphery of the European Union that they would naturally follow the Spanish in terms of what country they follow the most.
2.
As stated above, Portugal is one of the most involved countries in the European Union as a whole. Despite being a rather small country, Portugal certainly punches above its weight in terms of participation and clout in the European Union. Speaking general, I think it would be quite easy to make the argument that Portugal has a lot of clout as a part of European Union wide negotiations. A primary reason for that is Portugal’s history of past leadership within the European Union. For example, Jose Manuel Barroso was the President of the European Commision from 2004 till 2014. Another example of the Portuguese showing leadership within the European Union was when Antonio Vitorino was the European Commissioner for Justice and Home Affairs. Additionally, one of the biggest treaties to occur in European Union was the Lisbon Treaty.
In terms of policies like migration, Portugal has typically been very pro-migration. Unlike many other European countries within the European Union, who are trying to get out of taking more migrants, Portugal has currently been looking to gain more immigrants because currently it has a declining population. According to article by the Straits Times, current Portuguese Prime Minister, Antonio Costa has said that Portugal needs at least 75,000 new migrants every year to maintain a healthy working population. So while it is advantageous economically for the Portuguese to be accepting of migrants, they have done a good and active job trying to help them.
In terms of actual negotiations with different sectors of the European Union, when it comes to migration policy, Portuguese Prime Minister, Antonio Costa has spoken to the European Council advocating for refugees and wanting the European Union to be more accepting of migrants. On the whole, we can typically see the Portuguese hold weight with the various sectors of the European Union. This is due in part to the past history of Portuguese leadership within the European Union and their ability to work well with other countries.
References
http://www.theportugalnews.com/news/pm-calls-for-eu-migration-system/47220
https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_portugal_a_good_european_in_search_of_friends
https://www.politico.eu/article/portugal-foreign-minister-augusto-santos-silva-no-prospect-of-sufficient-progress-in-brexit-talks-eu-uk/
https://www.migrationpolicy.org/country-resource/portugal
https://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/portugal-the-european-country-that-wants-more-migrants
I employed a similar argument with my country, Ireland that you did with Portugal. Just like Portugal geographically borders Spain and is the only country to do so, Ireland and the United Kingdom are homologous. I think that Portugal and Ireland are two countries who share similar philosophies: both want to remain heavily involved in the EU, while their direct neighbors may not. I also like how you went further than the simple Portugal/ Spain relationship and discussed Portugal in terms of Germany, the United Kingdom, and France; overall it strengthened your argument about the closeness of Portugal and Spain.